Dry Bulk Quarterly: Panamax sector switches its focus as the seasons change

Moving into the fourth quarter, the harvest season in the northern hemisphere will dominate the movement of grains in the Atlantic Panamax and Kamsarmax market. The Black Sea stumbles mid-season During the third and fourth quarters, the Black Sea is a pillar that supports the market. With both corn and wheat cargoes exported to buyers in the Mediterranean and the Far East, demand for ships is high, pushing time charter hire rates for the ships up to 2020 highs. The recent launch of the Black Sea to Asia 60,000 mt, grains route assessment highlighted the dynamic movement of the grains from the Black Sea to China. China's demand for grains shows no signs of weakening. To satisfy the demand, both the US Gulf Coast and Black Sea regions are expected to increase exports and command high voyage rates. S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates the 2020-21 Ukrainian harvest at 37.4 million mt, up 4% on year and up more than 60% from its 2015-16 volume of 23 million mt.